Jong Utrecht vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-20 · 20:00 CET
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WWLLLThe score model makes a Jong Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jong Utrecht win — 39.1% vs 29.0% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.74 – 1.73 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 39.1% | 29.0% | +10.0% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.9% | -1.6% |
| FC Emmen win | 38.7% | 47.1% | -8.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 65.3% | +1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 45.2% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | 66.1% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 45.2% | +0.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 50.5 / FC Emmen 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Utrecht vs FC Emmen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.