Helmond vs Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-20 · 20:00 CET
LLWLL
WLLDLThe score model makes a Helmond win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.5% vs 59.6% implied (+7.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helmond 1.48 – 1.40 Dordrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond win | 39.5% | 41.6% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.6% | -2.0% |
| Dordrecht win | 35.9% | 31.7% | +4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 60.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 40.4% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 63.3% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 41.5% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Helmond 51.4 / Dordrecht 51.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Helmond vs Dordrecht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.