FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-20 · 20:00 CET
DWLWL
LWDDWThe score model makes an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 53.0% vs 42.2% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.05 – 1.48 Jong Ajax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 50.9% | 50.3% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 21.5% | -0.4% |
| Jong Ajax win | 28.0% | 28.2% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 74.6% | -6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 57.8% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | 73.5% | -6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.0% | 52.4% | -6.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Volendam 24 / Jong Ajax 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.