Almere City vs NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-20 · 20:00 CET
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WDWDWThe score model makes an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Almere City win — 43.1% vs 34.7% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almere City 1.78 – 1.57 NAC Breda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City win | 43.1% | 34.7% | +8.3% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.9% | -0.4% |
| NAC Breda win | 34.4% | 42.3% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 67.2% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 47.3% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | 67.7% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.6% | 46.4% | +1.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Almere City 35.9 / NAC Breda 20.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Almere City vs NAC Breda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.