Oss vs Helmond
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made an Oss win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oss 1.39 – 1.17 Helmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oss win | 42.4% | 42.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Helmond win | 31.9% | 31.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 59.3% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 38.8% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 61.9% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 40.4% | -9.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oss 49.2 / Helmond 49.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.