Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
WWLDW
LLWLDThe score model makes a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 50.9% vs 39.6% implied (+11.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 2.17 – 1.46 Den Bosch.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 53.9% | 49.4% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 21.7% | -1.6% |
| Den Bosch win | 26.0% | 28.9% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 77.4% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.1% | 60.4% | -11.3% |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | 75.5% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.4% | 55.4% | -10.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 49.5 / Den Bosch 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.