Jong Ajax vs Venlo
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
DWLLD
LWWLWThe score model makes a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.7% vs 50.1% implied (+17.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.43 – 1.55 Venlo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 35.5% | 33.1% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 23.4% | +0.4% |
| Venlo win | 40.8% | 43.5% | -2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 71.8% | -14.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% | 52.4% | -17.4% |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 71.5% | -11.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 49.9% | -17.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 49.5 / Venlo 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.