Heracles vs Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
WWLWD
WWWLDThe score model makes a Heracles win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 80%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 3.5 goals — 62.2% vs 45.4% implied (+16.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heracles 2.93 – 1.36 Waalwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 69.6% | 60.4% | +9.1% |
| Draw | 15.1% | 21.0% | -5.9% |
| Waalwijk win | 15.3% | 18.6% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.2% | 65.7% | +14.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62.2% | 45.4% | +16.8% |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | 62.2% | +8.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.4% | 45.5% | +7.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Heracles 10.8 / Waalwijk 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.