Heracles vs Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
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LDDLDThe score model made a Heracles win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 80%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heracles 2.93 – 1.36 Waalwijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 69.6% | 64.3% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.1% | 19.7% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Waalwijk win | 15.3% | 16.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.1% | 66.9% | +13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62.1% | 46.7% | +15.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | 61.8% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.4% | 46.4% | +6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Heracles 10.7 / Waalwijk 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Heracles vs Waalwijk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.