FC Volendam vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
WLWLW
WLDLWThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.36 – 1.36 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 59.7% | 39.4% | +20.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.8% | 24.0% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Vitesse win | 21.5% | 36.6% | -15.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | 69.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.0% | 49.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | 69.2% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.2% | 46.9% | +5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Volendam 20.3 / Vitesse 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.