De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
WLWDW
DWWLLThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.33 – 1.14 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 64.0% | 57.7% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.4% | 21.3% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Jong Utrecht win | 17.6% | 21.0% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 70.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 51.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 67.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 49.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Graafschap 50.8 / Jong Utrecht 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.