Almere City vs Eindhoven FC
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
LWWLW
DWWLDThe score model makes an Almere City win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 63.0% vs 51.1% implied (+11.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almere City 2.49 – 1.10 Eindhoven FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City win | 68.0% | 65.1% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 16.9% | 19.0% | -2.1% |
| Eindhoven FC win | 15.1% | 15.9% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | 69.7% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.3% | 50.4% | -2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 62.8% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 48.9% | -11.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Almere City 37.4 / Eindhoven FC 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.