Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-31 · 20:00 CET
WWLDW
LDWWLThe score model made a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 2.20 – 1.26 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 58.8% | 58.7% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.7% | 21.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Jong Utrecht win | 21.5% | 20.3% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 70.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 50.3% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 66.0% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 48.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 48.3 / Jong Utrecht 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.