Venlo vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-30 · 16:45 CET
LWLWW
DWWWWThe score model makes a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 65.3% vs 53.9% implied (+11.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venlo 1.66 – 1.45 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venlo win | 43.0% | 38.5% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.4% | -1.2% |
| FC Emmen win | 33.8% | 37.0% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 67.1% | -6.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 47.1% | -9.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 68.7% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 46.1% | -11.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Venlo 47.9 / FC Emmen 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.