Venlo vs FC Emmen
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-30 · 16:45 CET
LWWLW
WLLWDThe score model made a Venlo win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venlo 1.65 – 1.44 FC Emmen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venlo win | 42.9% | 38.8% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.6% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| FC Emmen win | 33.9% | 36.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 67.0% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 46.8% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 68.5% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 46.8% | -12.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Venlo 47.3 / FC Emmen 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.