De Graafschap vs Almere City
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-29 · 16:30 CET
LWLWD
LWWLWThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.90 – 1.75 Almere City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap win | 42.4% | 41.4% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 23.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Almere City win | 36.3% | 35.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | 72.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.6% | 53.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | 72.3% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 50.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: De Graafschap 49.1 / Almere City 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.