Oss vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
LLWLW
LDWWLThe score model made an Oss win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oss 1.53 – 1.16 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oss win | 46.3% | 44.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.8% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Jong Utrecht win | 28.9% | 29.5% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 57.4% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.3% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 60.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 39.3% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oss 47.5 / Jong Utrecht 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.