Oss vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
WWLLL
DWLLLThe score model makes a Oss win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.3% vs 58.5% implied (+11.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oss 1.53 – 1.16 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oss win | 46.2% | 44.4% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.0% |
| Jong Utrecht win | 29.0% | 30.8% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 60.7% | -10.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 39.9% | -11.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 62.7% | -9.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 41.5% | -11.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oss 47.8 / Jong Utrecht 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.