Jong AZ vs Maastricht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
LWLWL
DLWWWThe score model makes a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 58.8% vs 53.1% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 2.02 – 1.38 Maastricht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 52.7% | 54.6% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 23.1% | -2.0% |
| Maastricht win | 26.2% | 22.3% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 68.4% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 48.8% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 67.3% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 46.9% | -5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 48.2 / Maastricht 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.