Jong AZ vs Maastricht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
WWLDW
DLLWLThe score model made a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 2.02 – 1.38 Maastricht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 52.7% | 52.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 23.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Maastricht win | 26.3% | 24.5% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 67.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.2% | 47.9% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 66.7% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 46.8% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 47.5 / Maastricht 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.