Jong Ajax vs Helmond
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
DWLLD
WWLLDThe score model made a Jong Ajax win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.47 – 1.28 Helmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 41.9% | 43.4% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Helmond win | 33.2% | 31.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 60.8% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 40.1% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 63.3% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 41.5% | -5.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 47.6 / Helmond 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.