Jong Ajax vs Helmond
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
WLLLL
WLDLDThe score model makes a Jong Ajax win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.5% vs 60.4% implied (+10.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.47 – 1.27 Helmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 41.9% | 44.3% | -2.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.2% | +0.8% |
| Helmond win | 33.1% | 31.5% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 60.5% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 39.6% | -10.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 62.6% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 41.5% | -5.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 48 / Helmond 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.