FC Volendam vs Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
LWLWL
LLLWDThe score model made an FC Volendam win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 6:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.10 – 1.13 Dordrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 59.9% | 48.0% | +12.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 25.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Dordrecht win | 19.9% | 26.8% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 59.4% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 38.5% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 61.4% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.7% | 40.5% | +4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Volendam 15.8 / Dordrecht 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.