Den Bosch vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
LLWLD
WLWLDThe score model made a Den Bosch win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Den Bosch 1.69 – 1.54 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch win | 41.9% | 33.4% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Vitesse win | 35.4% | 42.5% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 65.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 45.6% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | 66.7% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 45.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Den Bosch 49.2 / Vitesse 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.