FK Liepaja vs Auda
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-10-12 · 17:00 CET
WDDDL
WDWDWThe score model made an Auda win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Liepaja 1.18 – 1.22 Auda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja win | 34.9% | 41.8% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 25.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Auda win | 37.1% | 32.4% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 55.1% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 33.6% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 58.4% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 37.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Liepaja 50.9 / Auda 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.