FK Liepaja vs Riga FC
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-31 · 16:30 CET
LWDDD
LDDWWThe score model made a Riga FC win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Liepaja 0.94 – 2.24 Riga FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja win | 14.3% | 15.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.8% | 20.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Riga FC win | 66.8% | 63.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 61.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 40.5% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 55.9% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.8% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Liepaja 51.4 / Riga FC 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.