Ogre United vs RFS
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
LLDLW
DWDWDThe score model made an RFS win the most likely outcome at 89%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 84%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ogre United 0.79 – 3.79 RFS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United win | 3.8% | 5.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 7.4% | 10.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| RFS win | 88.9% | 84.1% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.5% | 72.5% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67.0% | 53.5% | +13.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 44.1% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 89.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | 51.4% | +13.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ogre United 21.6 / RFS 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.