Auda vs Super Nova
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
DWDWD
DWWLLThe score model made an Auda win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auda 1.79 – 0.72 Super Nova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda win | 62.9% | 64.5% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 21.2% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Super Nova win | 14.4% | 14.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 56.4% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 35.2% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 50.8% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 38.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auda 50.7 / Super Nova 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.