Auda vs FK Liepaja
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-25 · 18:00 CET
DWDWD
LWDDDThe score model made an Auda win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auda 1.62 – 0.98 FK Liepaja.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda win | 52.2% | 46.0% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| FK Liepaja win | 22.7% | 28.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 57.0% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 36.1% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 59.6% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auda 50.1 / FK Liepaja 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.