RFS vs Riga FC
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a RFS win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: RFS win — 42.7% vs 40.4% implied (+2.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RFS 1.61 – 1.39 Riga FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RFS win | 42.7% | 40.4% | +2.3% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.3% | -2.1% |
| Riga FC win | 33.1% | 33.4% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 55.7% | +2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 35.0% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 59.7% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 37.7% | +1.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RFS 50.7 / Riga FC 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.