Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-22 · 14:00 CET
LWLWL
WWLWWThe score model makes an BFC Daugavpils win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.3% vs 62.2% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Super Nova 1.19 – 1.30 BFC Daugavpils.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova win | 33.8% | 29.2% | +4.6% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.1% | +1.0% |
| BFC Daugavpils win | 39.1% | 44.7% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | 55.4% | -9.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 34.8% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 58.4% | -7.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 37.8% | -11.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Super Nova 41.4 / BFC Daugavpils 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.