Ogre United vs Jelgava
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LWLDL
LLLLLThe score model makes an Jelgava win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ogre United win — 32.0% vs 25.0% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ogre United 1.27 – 1.51 Jelgava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United win | 32.0% | 25.0% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.5% | -0.2% |
| Jelgava win | 42.7% | 49.4% | -6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 55.4% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.2% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 57.5% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 37.6% | +1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ogre United 21 / Jelgava 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.