FK Liepaja vs Grobina
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-21 · 17:00 CET
WLWLW
WLDLLThe score model makes a FK Liepaja win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 54.6% vs 41.5% implied (+13.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Liepaja 1.86 – 0.77 Grobina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja win | 63.3% | 56.1% | +7.2% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.4% | -1.5% |
| Grobina win | 14.8% | 20.6% | -5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 59.7% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 39.3% | -12.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 58.5% | -13.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 41.2% | -2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Liepaja 50.7 / Grobina 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.