FK Liepaja vs Grobina
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-21 · 17:00 CET
LWDDD
LWLDDThe score model made an FK Liepaja win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Liepaja 1.86 – 0.77 Grobina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja win | 63.3% | 60.4% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 23.1% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Grobina win | 14.8% | 16.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 53.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 33.3% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 51.2% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.2% | 37.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Liepaja 50.5 / Grobina 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.