Auda vs Tukums 2000
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-21 · 17:00 CET
DLDWW
LLLWLThe score model makes a Auda win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Auda win — 63.8% vs 55.4% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auda 2.08 – 0.93 Tukums 2000.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auda win | 63.8% | 55.4% | +8.4% |
| Draw | 20.3% | 23.6% | -3.3% |
| Tukums 2000 win | 15.9% | 21.0% | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 58.5% | -0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 37.6% | -2.2% |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 58.1% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 39.8% | +3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auda 49.8 / Tukums 2000 51.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.