Auda vs Tukums 2000
Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-08-21 · 17:00 CET
DWDWD
LLWLDThe score model made an Auda win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auda 2.08 – 0.93 Tukums 2000.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda win | 63.8% | 64.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 20.3% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Tukums 2000 win | 15.9% | 15.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 60.3% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 54.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 41.9% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auda 49.5 / Tukums 2000 51.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.