Kazma SC vs Al Arabi
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-10-09 · 19:05 CET
WWDWD
WDLDDThe score model made an Al Arabi win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kazma SC 1.07 – 1.34 Al Arabi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazma SC win | 28.9% | 35.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Al Arabi win | 41.9% | 36.5% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 53.4% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 33.6% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 57.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 35.5% | -12.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kazma SC 24.5 / Al Arabi 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.