Al Salmiya vs Al Shabab
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-10-10 · 19:05 CET
LLWWL
LWDLWThe score model made an Al Salmiya win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Salmiya 2.11 – 0.74 Al Shabab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Salmiya win | 68.3% | 61.8% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 22.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Al Shabab win | 11.1% | 15.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 51.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 30.6% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 47.8% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 35.9% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Salmiya 25.2 / Al Shabab 15.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.