Al Shabab vs Al Jahra
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-26 · 17:45 CET
LLWDL
DLLWLThe score model made an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.23 – 1.08 Al Jahra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab win | 37.9% | 40.3% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 30.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Al Jahra win | 30.9% | 29.7% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 44.2% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 25.4% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 50.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 31.1% | -8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Shabab 13.6 / Al Jahra 14.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.