Al Kuwait vs Al Arabi
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-25 · 17:45 CET
DDDWW
LWDLDThe score model made an Al Kuwait win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Kuwait 1.66 – 1.00 Al Arabi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kuwait win | 51.7% | 43.4% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.3% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Al Arabi win | 21.4% | 28.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 48.8% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 29.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 53.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 33.9% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Kuwait 24.1 / Al Arabi 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.