Al-Fahaheel vs Al Qadisiya
Premier League, Kuwait · 2026-08-25 · 20:00 CET
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DWWLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al-Fahaheel 1.11 – 1.94 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fahaheel win | 20.4% | 14.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 22.7% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 55.5% | 62.4% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 53.1% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 33.2% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 49.2% | +9.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 36.7% | -6.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al-Fahaheel 24.9 / Al Qadisiya 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.