Machida vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-21 · 06:00 CET
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LWLLDThe score model makes a Machida win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Machida 2.13 – 0.94 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida win | 65.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 18.3% | — | — |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 16.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Machida 40.6 / V-Varen Nagasaki 22.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Machida vs V-Varen Nagasaki in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.