Kyoto vs Urawa Reds
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-21 · 06:00 CET
LDDWW
WWWLDThe score model makes a Urawa Reds win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kyoto 1.42 – 1.46 Urawa Reds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto win | 37.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.1% | — | — |
| Urawa Reds win | 39.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kyoto 45.3 / Urawa Reds 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kyoto vs Urawa Reds in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.