Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-21 · 07:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model makes a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kawasaki Frontale win — 61.3% vs 49.8% implied (+11.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.98 – 0.99 Avispa Fukuoka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 61.3% | 49.8% | +11.5% |
| Draw | 19.8% | 26.1% | -6.3% |
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 19.0% | 24.2% | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 52.0% | +5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 31.3% | +3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 55.2% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 36.3% | +0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kawasaki Frontale 46.6 / Avispa Fukuoka 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.