Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-21 · 07:00 CET
LDDLW
WDWWWThe score model makes an FC Tokyo win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.2% vs 61.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 1.09 – 1.89 FC Tokyo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka win | 22.4% | 19.2% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 20.7% | 22.4% | -1.7% |
| FC Tokyo win | 56.9% | 58.3% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 59.4% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.8% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 57.5% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 41.0% | -2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cerezo Osaka 44.4 / FC Tokyo 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.