Kashiwa Reysol vs Chiba
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-20 · 11:00 CET
LDWWW
DLDWWThe score model makes a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 2.06 – 1.05 Chiba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 61.3% | — | — |
| Draw | 19.3% | — | — |
| Chiba win | 19.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kashiwa Reysol 47.9 / Chiba 21.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kashiwa Reysol vs Chiba in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.