Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-20 · 11:00 CET
WDLWL
DLLLLThe score model makes a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 2.03 – 0.82 Shimizu S-Pulse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers win | 66.3% | — | — |
| Draw | 18.8% | — | — |
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 14.9% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.4% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kashima Antlers 45.9 / Shimizu S-Pulse 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.