Kyoto vs Machida
J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-10 · 12:00 CET
WDLLW
DWWDLThe score model makes a Machida win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kyoto win — 31.9% vs 25.5% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kyoto 1.19 – 1.49 Machida.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto win | 31.9% | 25.5% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 25.6% | -3.2% |
| Machida win | 45.6% | 48.9% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 53.3% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 32.1% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 55.9% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 36.2% | -5.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kyoto 42.8 / Machida 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.