FC Tokyo vs Urawa Reds
J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-10 · 08:00 CET
WDWWW
WWWLDThe score model made an FC Tokyo win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Tokyo 1.46 – 1.19 Urawa Reds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo win | 45.0% | 51.4% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Urawa Reds win | 32.3% | 23.6% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 56.9% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 36.4% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 58.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 38.2% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Tokyo 42.5 / Urawa Reds 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Tokyo vs Urawa Reds in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.