Avispa Fukuoka vs Okayama
J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-10 · 08:00 CET
LDLLW
WWWLLThe score model made an Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka 1.01 – 0.94 Okayama.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 37.9% | 31.2% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 30.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Okayama win | 34.3% | 38.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 40.9% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.5% | 21.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.2% | 48.2% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 27.0% | +3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Avispa Fukuoka 40.8 / Okayama 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.