Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-02 · 12:00 CET
LDWDW
WDLLWThe score model made a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.65 – 1.40 Kyoto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 45.0% | 46.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 26.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Kyoto win | 34.1% | 26.7% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 51.3% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 30.9% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 54.9% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 34.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yokohama F. Marinos 44.2 / Kyoto 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.