Verdy vs Vissel Kobe
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-02 · 12:00 CET
LLDDL
WWWWWThe score model made a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Verdy 0.77 – 1.20 Vissel Kobe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdy win | 25.3% | 22.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 30.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Vissel Kobe win | 48.0% | 46.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.5% | 36.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.8% | 18.1% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.8% | 42.1% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 25.5% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Verdy 38.2 / Vissel Kobe 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.