Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-02 · 12:00 CET
LDLWW
WDWWWThe score model made an FC Tokyo win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 1.09 – 1.26 FC Tokyo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 33.8% | 20.9% | +12.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.4% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| FC Tokyo win | 41.8% | 52.7% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 48.1% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 27.5% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 50.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 32.5% | -8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shimizu S-Pulse 27.2 / FC Tokyo 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.