Machida vs Kawasaki Frontale
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-02 · 12:00 CET
DWWDL
WLWWDThe score model made a Machida win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Machida 1.97 – 1.17 Kawasaki Frontale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida win | 57.2% | 49.3% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 26.5% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 23.7% | 24.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 53.6% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 33.1% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 56.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.4% | 36.3% | +10.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Machida 35.9 / Kawasaki Frontale 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.