Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
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LWDLDThe score model made a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 1.63 – 0.99 Cerezo Osaka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe win | 53.8% | 44.9% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 27.9% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Cerezo Osaka win | 24.7% | 27.2% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 47.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 52.7% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 33.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vissel Kobe 41.2 / Cerezo Osaka 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.