Verdy vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
LLDDL
WLLLDThe score model made a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Verdy 0.72 – 1.37 Kashima Antlers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdy win | 21.3% | 22.2% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 28.3% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Kashima Antlers win | 54.1% | 49.5% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 43.7% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 23.6% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.4% | 47.7% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 30.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Verdy 37.5 / Kashima Antlers 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.