V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 11:30 CET
WLWLL
LWLDWThe score model makes an FC Tokyo win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: V-Varen Nagasaki win — 32.8% vs 21.2% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 1.38 – 1.69 FC Tokyo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 32.8% | 21.2% | +11.6% |
| Draw | 20.6% | 26.1% | -5.4% |
| FC Tokyo win | 46.5% | 52.7% | -6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 48.3% | +10.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 28.2% | +8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 50.5% | +8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.5% | 33.0% | +2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: V-Varen Nagasaki 14.3 / FC Tokyo 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.